A recent survey conducted in May by Public First for Politico finds that 18 percent of President Donald Trump’s 2024 voters report their financial situation has worsened since his return to office, citing the Iran war as the primary cause. The online survey polled 2,065 U.S. adults from May 9 to May 11, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Rising Cost-of-Living Concerns
Cost-of-living anxiety continues to grow across the country. In November, nearly half of Americans said the cost of living was the worst they could remember. By May, that figure had risen to 53 percent.
Responsibility for economic conditions remains pinned on Trump: 46 percent of Americans held him mostly or fully responsible in November, a figure that has remained virtually unchanged.
The Iran war has intensified these pressures. Over 60 percent of respondents—including majorities of both Trump voters and supporters of former Vice President Kamala Harris—reported that the conflict has driven up prices across multiple categories, including gas, food, and flight costs.
Divided Views Among Trump Voters
Trump voters are split over whether the president has done enough to protect them from the economic impact of the conflict. Forty-three percent say he has done enough, while another 43 percent say he has not, reflecting broader tensions within the GOP.
Prominent figures such as Tucker Carlson and former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene have openly criticized the conflict.
A plurality of Trump voters (42 percent) support continued U.S. involvement in Iran even if it results in higher costs, compared to just 11 percent of Harris voters and 22 percent of all respondents.
Economic Implications and Political Pressure
GOP communications strategist Kevin Madden noted that Trump faces a challenge similar to one Joe Biden experienced with inflation, where rising prices are difficult to dismiss as transitory.
Sustained increases in gas, food, and other essentials make it difficult for Trump to shift blame or reassure voters without acknowledging tangible impacts.
Battleground Republicans are increasingly concerned that a prolonged conflict could negatively affect their chances in key Senate and House races this November. Trump’s approval rating has already declined amid surging gas prices tied to the conflict.
Attempts to pin responsibility on Biden have not resonated: only 28 percent of Americans say the former president is mostly or fully responsible for the current economic situation.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai emphasized that short-term disruptions are temporary and that as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, Americans can expect lower gas prices, higher real wages, and cooling inflation. However, conflicting statements by Trump on when relief might come have left many voters uncertain.
Inflation and Economic Growth
Since Trump returned to office, inflation has reached its highest point yet, and first-quarter economic growth has fallen below initial estimates. Nearly half of Americans cite inflation as their top affordability concern, while roughly a quarter attribute economic pressures primarily to overseas conflicts. Strong majorities of respondents, including most Trump voters, report that prices for gas, food, and medicine have risen during this period.
Summary Table of Key Findings
| Aspect | Findings |
|---|---|
| Survey | Public First for Politico |
| Sample | 2,065 U.S. adults online, May 9–11, ±2% margin of error |
| Trump Voter Impact | 18% report finances worsened since Trump returned |
| Primary Cause | Iran war driving price increases (gas, food, flights) |
| Cost-of-Living Concern | 53% of Americans cite worst cost-of-living scenario, up from ~50% in November |
| Responsibility | 46% blame Trump for economic conditions; 28% blame Biden |
| Voter Split | 43% Trump voters say he’s done enough; 43% say he hasn’t |
| Continued Iran Involvement | 42% Trump voters support ongoing U.S. engagement despite higher costs |
| Inflation | Highest since Trump returned; first-quarter economic growth below estimates |
The Public First survey underscores growing financial anxiety among Trump voters and the broader U.S. population amid the Iran conflict. While many voters continue to hold Trump accountable for economic conditions, there is a clear divide among his supporters over whether he has done enough to mitigate rising prices.
Inflation, rising costs for essentials, and geopolitical uncertainty combine to create significant political and economic pressures, particularly as midterm elections approach. The findings suggest that both domestic and international factors will play a central role in shaping public perceptions of Trump’s economic leadership.
