When Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma to take over the USC Trojans before the 2022 season, expectations were sky-high. USC fans believed he would quickly restore the program to national championship level. Four years later, the results have been mixed — and 2026 is shaping up to be a make-or-break season.
High Expectations After Oklahoma Success
Before joining USC, Riley built an impressive record with the Oklahoma Sooners. He went 55-10 overall and led the Sooners to multiple New Year’s Six bowl appearances. Oklahoma regularly won 11 or 12 games under his leadership.
At USC, however, he hasn’t reached that same level. In 2022, the Trojans came close to a College Football Playoff appearance but fell short after quarterback Caleb Williams was injured in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Since then, USC has not seriously challenged for a playoff spot — even after the playoff field expanded.
Riley Says the Program Is ‘Close’
Speaking at recent Big Ten meetings, Riley said he sees clear progress both on and off the field. He believes the Trojans are just a few plays away from breaking through.
Riley even said he is a better coach now than he was at Oklahoma. He admitted he has learned important lessons and grown from his experiences.
According to Riley, USC was “snaps away” last season from being in serious playoff contention. But critics argue that elite teams find ways to win those close games — something USC has struggled to do.
For example:
- They lost a tight game to the Illinois Fighting Illini.
- They missed opportunities against Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
- They were clearly outplayed by the Oregon Ducks in Eugene.
One key moment fans still talk about is a risky trick play against Notre Dame that led to a costly fumble by wide receiver Makai Lemon in the fourth quarter.
2026: A Defining Season
This season will not be easy. USC now competes in the Big Ten, and the schedule is packed with tough matchups.
Key games include:
- Road trips to Indiana Hoosiers and Penn State Nittany Lions
- Home games against Ohio State Buckeyes, Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies
- A rivalry clash with UCLA Bruins
Even winning nine games could be seen as decent progress given the tough competition. But for Riley, “decent” may not be enough.
Pressure From Fans and Administration
USC’s athletic department now appears more aligned, with general manager Chad Bowden helping build the No. 1 recruiting class in the country through strong NIL support. Talent is not the main issue anymore.
The bigger question is whether Riley can turn talent into wins in big moments.
At Oklahoma, he averaged about 11 wins per season. At USC, he has yet to match that level. Fans are growing impatient, especially after seeing close losses pile up.
If USC reaches 10 wins and makes the playoff, Riley’s vision of an “open window” will look accurate. But if the Trojans fall short again — especially in close, high-pressure games — criticism will only grow louder.
What’s at Stake
College football is results-driven, especially at a powerhouse program like USC. Riley believes the team is ready. He says the culture is improving, the roster is stronger and the lessons have been learned.
Now, it comes down to execution.
The 2026 season could define Lincoln Riley’s future at USC. A playoff appearance would silence many critics and confirm the program is truly back on track. But another year of near misses and missed opportunities could raise serious questions about whether he is the right coach to lead the Trojans back to national dominance.
